Treaty Forcing: Will International Commitments Ever Control Climate Forcing?

Treaty Forcing
This paper introduces the idea of “treaty forcing” in order to juxtapose the process of international treaty negotiation with the concept of climate forcing that is the mainstay of the scientific account of global climate change. Treaty forcing with respect to the issue of climate change is defined as the process leading to the actual commencement of long-term GHG emissions reductions actions by all major emitter nations, as specified in binding, verifiable and enforceable targets clearly laid out in a ratified international treaty which has come into force. The paper discusses a number of prominent cases of international treaty negotiation during the second half of the 20th century, including the Montreal Protocol, and then specifies the four stages of additional negotiation that would be needed to move from the 2015 Paris Accord to a more robust climate change treaty. Finally, it proposes the use of an expert elicitation exercise to clarify, in the context of three hypothetical future treaty-negotiation timeline scenarios, and the set of 2014 IPCC global warming mitigation scenarios, the following questions: (1) how and when the two sets of scenarios might converge; (2) whether a new effort to put specific emissions reduction targets into treaty form should be made; (3) whether climate engineering should be incorporated into any new treaty dealing with the risks of climate change?

Black holes of risk Volume I: The Ubiquity of Risk – updated and on Amazon

Black Holes of Risk

By William Leiss

Collected Papers on Risk Management, 1995-2017

Volume I:  The Ubiquity of Risk

382 Pages

November 2017

Preface by Ortwin Renn

(Also available on and other Amazon markets)

Table of contents

Preface by Ortwin Renn (2017)

Introduction (2017)

Prelude:  A Risk Sampler

  1. Review, Ulrich Beck Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (1993)
  2. Mr. Bush’s Panopticon (2003)
  3. Elementary, My Dear Watson (2003)
  4. Higher Life-Forms Before the Law (2003)
  5. The Risks of Policy Choices: The War in Iraq (2003)
  6. Mel Gibson’s Mistake – and the Middle East War (2006)
  7. The Net Present Value of Political Promises (2008)
  8. Design for a Risk Forecasting Exercise (2000)
  9. What went wrong in the BSE File (2005)
  10. Analyzing Risk-based Policy Initiatives (2004)

Part One:  Risk Decision-Making

Chapter 1:  Introductory Note to Part One (2017)

Chapter 2: Risk Management and Precaution (2003)

Chapter 3: Men Having Sex with Men (2008, Update 2017)

Chapter 4:  The Air-India Inquiry (2007, Update 2017)

Chapter 5: Ozone and Climate (2005)

Chapter 6: Why and When Decisions Fail (2005)

Chapter 7: Smart Regulation and Risk Management (2003)

Chapter 8: The Risk Amplification Framework (2003)

Part Two:  Risk Communication

Chapter 9:  Introductory Note to Part Two

Chapter 10: “Down and Dirty” (1995)

Chapter 11: The Evolution of Risk Communication Practice (1996)

Chapter 12: Effective Risk Communication Practice (2004)

Chapter 13: A Tale of Two Food Risks (2006)

Chapter 14: Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed (2001)

Chapter 15: Labeling of Genetically-Modified Foods (2003)

Part Three:  Case Studies in Risk Management

Chapter 16: Carbon Capture and Storage (2009, Update 2017)

Chapter 17: BSE in Canada (2010, Update 2017)

Chapter 18: Chronic Wasting Disease (2017)


Risks are everywhere, ubiquitous. For the individual, they begin even before conception, in the genetic matchups from one’s parents that could presage becoming afflicted with one of the more than ten thousand known inherited diseases, many of which have catastrophic consequences. They carry on throughout pregnancy, with rates of miscarriage and complications exceeding 30%, and into early childhood; before modern public safety and medicine, about half of all newborns died before the age of five. And then throughout life, with premature mortality resulting from accidents, disease, and acts of deliberate malice.

Should a realization about the ubiquity of risk induce in us a state of paralyzing, overwhelming fear? Should it send us into a catatonic state, unable to function at all?  Quite the contrary, for it tells us that we are well on our way to domesticating risks, to becoming, if not comfortable with them, then at least understanding them far better than we have done before: That we are steadily learning what substances, behaviors, activities and conditions are quite likely to be harmful to us, and which ones are much less likely to do so, enabling us to set priorities for spending time and money on figuring out how to reduce the impact of potential harms on our health, well-being, and longevity.

The great discovery about risk in the modern West was simply that risks are measurable, whereas dangers are not. (The early history in this area is wonderfully told by Peter L. Bernstein in his 1998 book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.) In other words, what is really important about the things that may do us harm is just how much harm may be approaching, from a specific source, and how likely it is to strike us. And because risks are measurable, that is, quantifiable, we can rank a collection of them in order of importance, estimating how much more likely one is as opposed to another, and also how much more harm one may do to us than some other one may.